Friday, October 17, 2014

New Spanish-language ad targets Tillis

My colleague Franco Ordonez reports that Republican U.S. Senate candidate Thom Tillis is the target of a new Spanish-language ad directed at North Carolina Latino voters.
 
The 30-second spot, that will be aired starting Friday, by liberal advocacy group People for the American Way says Tillis “doesn’t respect the values of our community.” It also targets his positions on education and minimum wage.

“Republicans like Thom Tillis keep blocking opportunities for us, and that kind of disrespect we will not allow!,” the ad states in Spanish.
Latino voters make up less than 2 percent of the electorate in North Carolina, but some experts say they could be the difference in the close race between Tillis, the Republican state House speaker, and Democratic U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan.
 
The ad makes no reference to immigration. Tillis opposes a path to citizenship for those in the country illegally, while Hagan supported a Senate bill that provided such a path. She, however, opposed efforts by President Obama to issue an executive order that would allow more undocumented immigrants to remain and work in the country legally.

Thursday, October 16, 2014

Hagan stimulus money focus of new $1 million ad campaign

Freedom Partners Action Fund plans to launch a $1 million ad campaign targeting Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan over allegations that her family benefited from the 2009 stimulus program.

The group, funded by the conservative Koch brothers, announced the ad campaign Thursday.

The ad is the first broadcast response to a story first reported last month by Politico.

Politico cited public records in reporting that JDC Manufacturing, a company co-owned by Hagan's husband, Chip, got nearly $390,000 in grants and tax credits under the stimulus law, which Kay Hagan voted for.

Hagan's campaign said at the time that Hagan was not involved with the business and consulted an ethics attorney, who advised that there was no conflict of interest.

But the Freedom Partners' ad says, "The Hagans got richer and we paid the price."

Hagan spokeswoman Sadie Weiner says the family did not profit from the transaction.

"Speaker Tillis and his allies are desperate to say or do anything that will keep the focus off of his failed record in the General Assembly," Weiner said Thursday. "So now they are resorting to false attacks on Kay's family. Kay's only involvement was to seek the opinion of an ethics attorney who found it would be appropriate for her husband's company to receive these grants just like hundreds of other North Carolina companies did."

Caitlin Legacki, a spokeswoman for JDC, said the federal money was monitored by inspectors and auditors. "Kay Hagan had no role during any of this process,: she said. "Under no circumstances did JDC profit from these grants and any assertion otherwise is false."

A 12th District first? A Republican outraises the Democrat

Republican Vince Coakley did something no Republican has done before in the 12th Congressional District: Raise more money in a quarter than his Democratic opponent.

Coakley raised $172,000 in the third quarter to Democrat Alma Adams' $158,000, according to new reports filed with the Federal Election Commission. He also had more cash on hand at the end of September, $105,000 to Adams' $64,000.

Not that money is a big advantage in the district, which is overwhelmingly Democratic.

Adams, a state legislator from Greensboro, has raised more for the entire election: $666,000 to Coakley's $291,000. But she had a competitive primary.

Both are running for the seat held for two decades by Charlotte Democrat Mel Watt, who left to head the National Housing Finance Agency. Each of their names will actually appear on the ballot twice. Once to fill Watt's unexpired term and once for a full term.

Adams and Coakley, a Charlotte broadcaster, are about as far apart on issues as candidates can be. Both tapped national fundraising bases.

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Guess who's not coming to the next Senate debate?

Four U.S. Senate candidates are expected to debate Friday night at UNC Charlotte. And none of them are named Kay Hagan or Thom Tillis.

Libertarian candidate Sean Haugh and three write-in candidates will appear at what's billed as an "all inclusive" debate sponsored by a group called Free the Vote North Carolina.

Hagan and Tillis were invited. Organizers never heard from Hagan; Tillis claimed a scheduling conflict.

It will be the second debate appearance for Haugh, who stood alongside the majority party candidates in Wilmington last week. It will be the first for write-in candidates Barry Gurney, John Rhodes and David Waddell.

Organizers say the debate is to show voters all their choices. That's what elections should be about, says Brian Irving, a spokesman for the Libertarian Party. "We have a democracy," he says, "All the choices available to (voters) should be allowed to speak.”

The event is trying to make a statement about a system that not only keeps some candidates out of debates but often off the ballot.

Some debate organizers, including media organizations, require a candidate to hit a certain polling number to participate. And North Carolina's ballot is notoriously hard to get on.

To get on the ballot, for example, a new political party or unaffiliated candidate has to submit petitions signed by 2 percent of the total number of votes cast in the last gubernatorial election. Now that's 89,366.

Last year a bi-partisan group of state House lawmakers introduced the Voter Freedom Act of 2013, a measure that would have launched a study of ways to ease ballot access. It passed the House 109-5 but went to the Senate Rules Committee where it died.


 

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Republicans doubling down on Thom Tillis

With polls tightening in North Carolina's Senate race, the National Republican Senatorial Committee is betting another $6.5 million on Thom Tillis.

The NRSC is investing that much to help Tillis on top of the $3.9 million already committed.

The move comes as groups are making last-minute adjustments to their spending strategies three weeks before Election Day. A week before the new N.C. investment, the NRSC canceled $850,000 in ads on behalf of Michigan Senate candidate Terry Lynn Land.

The NRSC bump still leaves it behind its Democratic counterpart. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has spent over $16 million on behalf of Sen. Kay Hagan, and just announced another $1 million.

The NRSC investment comes as internal tracking polls and outside surveys show the race is tightening. Real Clear Politics shows Hagan with an average lead of 1.5 points, smaller than just a few days ago.

After getting pummeled in TV spending for months, Tillis and his allies pulled even and even a little ahead in mid-September, according to the Center for Public Integrity.

Lately they've been hitting Hagan with a series of ads that highlight the time she missed a Senate security hearing to attend a Park Avenue fundraiser.

"Even though Sen. Hagan has persistently led in the polls, it’s never been anywhere close to a lead too big to come back from," said Tom Jensen, director of Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling.

"For instance in 2008 we found her lead go from 3 points to 7 points just in the final week of the campaign. If Tillis could make a similar gain over the next 3 weeks that would be enough to erase the 3-4 point lead Hagan has in the polls right now. We’re finding that the overall national climate right now is trending in the GOP’s direction."




 

Wednesday, October 08, 2014

Can Sean Haugh make Senate candidates play nice?

Sean Haugh watched this week's U.S. Senate debate in a bar with the sound down, just the way he liked it.

“I have absolutely no interest whatsoever," he said shortly before Tuesday's debate. "One of the reasons I don't watch it it I already know what they re going to say."

But Thursday night the Durham Libertarian and pizza delivery man will join Democratic U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan and Republican Thom Tillis on the set of Wilmington's WECT studio for the third and probably last Senate debate.

Haugh doesn't plan to get into the personal attacks each of the main party candidates leveled on each other during their first two debates.

"I don’t feel any great need to talk about them" he said. "I think people are already familiar with all the reasons not to vote for them. They've done a good job of that."

In fact he thinks he might help change the tone.

"I hope my presence might help them play nice with each other,” he said.

Haugh has lingered in the single digits in most Senate polls. A USA Today/Suffolk University Poll released Wednesday had him at 4 percent. He had 7 percent in an NBC poll released Sunday.

So he could be a spoiler in what's expected to be a close race. But a spoiler for whom?

Conventional wisdom has been that he would take votes from Tillis. But an Elon University survey suggested just the opposite.

The online survey gave 763 voters a choice of a ballot with all three candidates and one with just Hagan and Tillis. It found that Haugh would siphon twice as many votes from Hagan as from Tillis.

Tillis, the survey directors concluded, "should be thankful that Haugh is on the ballot."
   
 
 

Tuesday, October 07, 2014

5 things to watch in tonight's Senate debate


Republican Thom Tillis and Democrat Kay Hagan meet Tuesday night in their second debate. Here are five things to watch for. The hour-long debate starts at 7 and will be shown on most broadcast stations.

1. How will they handle the inevitable question on gay marriage?

On Monday the U.S. Supreme Court opened the door to gay marriage in North Carolina and other states, and couples could be tying the knot this month. Tillis opposes gay marriage and stood up for the constitutional amendment banning it. Now does he appeal to his base or to the middle that may be ready to accept what looks like the inevitability of same-sex marriage?

Hagan supports gay marriage, despite the fact that the amendment passed in 2012 with more than 60 percent of N.C. voters supporting it.

2. How will Hagan respond to criticism of her attendance at meetings of the Armed Services Committee, especially given the rise of ISIS?

And will Tillis say what he would do differently than President Obama in dealing with the militants?

3. How much will each candidate criticize the other over alleged conflicts of interest? Both have found themselves, or their families, the subject of recent stories.

4. How much of the debate will focus on the record of the Republican-controlled General Assembly as opposed to national issues?

5. How will Tillis address his opponent? In their first debate, he called her "Kay," sparking criticism from some. He alluded to that Saturday when he spoke at an event with Sen. Deb Fischer of Nebraska.

“Sen. Fisher – if you don’t mind me calling you Deb – I know some senators like titles,” he said.





Monday, September 15, 2014

New poll is latest showing Hagan with edge in Senate race

A new poll released today is the third in a week showing Democratic U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan with an advantage over Republican Thom Tillis in North Carolina's U.S. Senate race.

The latest came this morning from American Insights, a Republican-leaning firm in Raleigh. It found Hagan leading Tillis 43 percent to 34 percent among registered voters, with Libertarian Sean Haugh pulling 5 percent. The margin of error is 4.6 percentage points.

The 9-point lead is Hagan's largest in any recent poll.

"The race has unmistakably shifted towards Sen. Hagan in recent days," says polling director Pearce Godwin, a former aide to U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole. "This poll is a continuation and affirmation of the very recent trend in Sen. Hagan's direction. But there is still a lot of time left on the clock, and I would be surprised if this race does not revert to a jump ball between now and November."

Godwin says it appears to be a result at least in part of the barrage of Democratic ads against Tillis. Hi polls also suggest that Hagan was helped by her first debate with Tillis. Fifty-seven percent of likely female voters and 50 percent of like male voters said she performed better, according to the AI poll.

On Thursday a Rasmussen poll of likely voters showed Hagan leading Tillis 45 percent to 39 percent, while 6 percent favored somebody else and 9 percent were undecided.

A Survey USA/Civitas poll released the same day showed Hagan ahead 46 percent to 43 percent, with Haugh taking 5 percent.

Nate Silver's 538 blog took note of those two polls last week.

"The two polls together moved Hagan from a 45 percent underdog to a 61 percent percent favorite," it said. "With Hagan now leading, the FiveThirtyEight model does not project a single state in which President Obama won in either 2008 or 2012 to switch from Democratic to Republican control."