The latest came this morning from American Insights, a Republican-leaning firm in Raleigh. It found Hagan leading Tillis 43 percent to 34 percent among registered voters, with Libertarian Sean Haugh pulling 5 percent. The margin of error is 4.6 percentage points.
The 9-point lead is Hagan's largest in any recent poll.
"The race has unmistakably shifted towards Sen. Hagan in recent days," says polling director Pearce Godwin, a former aide to U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole. "This poll is a continuation and affirmation of the very recent trend in Sen. Hagan's direction. But there is still a lot of time left on the clock, and I would be surprised if this race does not revert to a jump ball between now and November."
Godwin says it appears to be a result at least in part of the barrage of Democratic ads against Tillis. Hi polls also suggest that Hagan was helped by her first debate with Tillis. Fifty-seven percent of likely female voters and 50 percent of like male voters said she performed better, according to the AI poll.
On Thursday a Rasmussen poll of likely voters showed Hagan leading Tillis 45 percent to 39 percent, while 6 percent favored somebody else and 9 percent were undecided.
A Survey USA/Civitas poll released the same day showed Hagan ahead 46 percent to 43 percent, with Haugh taking 5 percent.
Nate Silver's 538 blog took note of those two polls last week.
"The two polls together moved Hagan from a 45 percent underdog to a 61 percent percent favorite," it said. "With Hagan now leading, the FiveThirtyEight model does not project a single state in which President Obama won in either 2008 or 2012 to switch from Democratic to Republican control."
31 comments:
It must be all those lies in the ads she is running.
Jim,
The Observer, along with the Raleigh paper and Time-Warner Cable, have planned an October 21st debate.
The latest report is that Sen. Hagan has refused an invitation to that debate.
If the Hagan campaign doesn't accept, will the Observer and others:
1. Hold the debate, with only Tillis
2. Hold the debate, with Tillis and Libertarian Sean Haugh
3. Cancel the debate, which would be an obvious concession to Hagan
If you personally do not know, please identify the person at the Observer who would know.
Thanks
Organizers say it will go on as scheduled. As for Sean Haugh, a candidate has to have 15 percent support in three independent polls by early October.
North Carolina has adopted the same ALEC-mandated template for governance as Kansas, including massive tax cuts.
Like Kansas, this has resulted in tax receipts coming in way below projections because tax cuts do not pay for themselves, no matter how much Laffer gas the far right keeps huffing.
North Carolinians see through this. Apparertly, so do Kansans:
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/15/us/conservative-experiment-faces-revolt-in-reliably-red-kansas.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&version=HpSumSmallMedia&module=first-column-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0
@Thomas....and you think Tillis has never told a lie? Earth to Thomas: All politicians lie.
Sad to see a sitting incumbent with such a poor showing in the polls.
But at least the observer is helping.
We tried to tell the GOP not to nominate Tillis. Too many people suffering from his policies.
Total education funding has gone up every year under Tillis’ House leadership in the state House of Representatives. All politicians lie. Some are less ashamed of it than others. Hagan votes exactly as she is instructed to do so by Harry Reid. She should be running in Nevada, not NC. If this comment doesn't fit your bias, Observer, then by all means "moderate" it.
This liberal poll is highly misleading and a farce. Registered voters? Democrats? Yea like these dims will be at the polls in Nov without Obama running for something ... Forget it ...
Jim, We can read and we can hear from the teachers. I personally know quite a few and they are all miserable with the current government.
The Tillis and Berger led NC state government has overreached on the airport, neglected the most needy and strafed our education budget.
Are you proud that we rank #47 in teacher pay?
Are you fooled by an election year gimmick after cutting education for the past few years?
Tillis will pay for his neglect to the citizens of NC. He is a Koch product that serves the rich. His style is nepotistic to the core.
Anonymous 1:24.
First off, calling people names is a mark of intelligence.
Secondally, do you understand how much disgust that the citizens of NC have towards this state government.
I'm ex-republican and I think their policies are harmful and putrid.
They are RINOS. They are not fiscal conservatives and small government. How does one say that and try to steal our airport to the benefit of their campaign donors?
Think about that. They wanted to give our public airport to the control of their donors. In the biggest growth phase of the airport, these guys would allow no bid contracts and lack of public scrutiny and oversight if they controlled the airport.
Then they stack it with people who have a conflict of interest.
Unbelievable corrupt!
As an Independent in NC I will hold my nose and vote for Tillis because I do not agree with Obama and the Democrats amnesty policy for illegal immigrants. This has been tried before and failed miserably and I have no interest in repeating the mistakes of the past.
Hagan voted 96% for socialist radical liberal Obama policies and cast the deciding vote in the Senate for radical socialist redistribution Obamacare after she said 68 times in speeches you can keep your own policy and doctors etc if you wish.
Freedom is not taking away freedom and forcing higher premiums & deductibles not to mention giving millions of illegal aliens free coverage.
OC is also paying for sex changes and who knows what else calling it a pre existing condition. That is laughable at best.
Wanna show off your political intelligence? Just throw a bunch of hot-button adjectives in front of what you don't like to display your level-headed intellectualism.
Example: "I hate it when those socialist radical liberal chefs put cilantro on my food!"
Don't worry about the actual definition of those adjectives. We live in a Faux Nooz World.
Jim,
Thanks for replying, although I must say it's profoundly disturbing to learn that the Observer and others would prefer to include an empty chair at the debate rather than the legitimate Libertarian nominee.
Education funding has shrunk greatly during Tillis' leadership. We are now 51st out of 51 in per pupil spending. He is going to brag about that? Education has gone from 41% to 36% during Tillis' tenure. I haven't talked to one teacher who will vote for a Tillis. P.S. Anyone who lies about the college he attended on his resume cannot be trusted.
Kay is the only candidate in this race with the whole population of North Carolina in her interests. The other candidate is interested only in getting in office and serving his corporate sponsors. I am a registered independent, have voted for candidates of all political persuasions, Hate the current 2-party system look only at the people running for office. I'll be glad when we get to the point where we can have an honest election with NO CORPORATE SPONSORSHIP!
"Kay is the only candidate in this race with the whole population of North Carolina in her interests. The other candidate is interested only in getting in office and serving his corporate sponsors. I am a registered independent, have voted for candidates of all political persuasions, Hate the current 2-party system look only at the people running for office. I'll be glad when we get to the point where we can have an honest election with NO CORPORATE SPONSORSHIP!"
Full of crap. Kay Hagen's best interest is to make the state entirely Democrat...she's a soldier for Obama. No thanks. Me and thousands of others are voting for Tillis.
Despite all the money given by Tom Tillis and the Republican led legislature to businesses and the wealthy including a $336 million tax break in 2011, unemployment has risen this year in NC and is now at 6.8%, well above the 6.1% national average. Your plan for trickle down job growth is not working, in fact the economy in NC is going in reverse. If your economic policies worked, the unemployment rate here would be going down, and not up. You can blame Obama for this and that, but the Republicans own the economy in this state and should be held accountable in November for sinking the economy as well as undermining education. That $336 million would have done a lot to help the plight of education in NC at both primary and secondary levels and helped to build a better educated workforce.
millions of others you mean?
(democra) rat hagen is the typical lying rich elitist elite lawyer high class wealthy democrat who is backed by supports crony capitalism and pharmaceuticals leaving american kids with 20 trillion debt and counting with her muslim socialist homosexual promoting boss barack hussein obama.
republican tillis is just a regular guy middle class christian trailer park born and bred commoner who struggled to make it and supports the common folk and helps them with higher teacher pay raises and
lesser taxations plus wants to give them jobs.
who do you want? the big city rolls royce jaguar owner 1% elitist rich lying lawyer crony capitalist socialist do nothing female kay hagen or the regular hard worker lower middle class jobs creator from the trailer parks of small town huntersville mecklenburg county nc ?
dont forget not to long ago charlotte mecklenburg was once just a small simpleton blue collared cotton mill town trucking capital of the world plus birthplace of nascar and birthplace of commoner president. james k polk.
being born and raised in a charlotte trailor park instilled the values of hard work and desire for success as opposed to the millionaire money grubber liberal (democ)rat hagen who cheated insurance companies as a an ambulance chaser to make millions growing up a silver spooner in the lap of luxury with all private white elite school education like her rich boss obama.
thom tillis grew up in a charlotte mecklenburg cotton mill trucker trailer park family and now lives in a small quality farm cow town called huntersville never forgetting his commoner roots.
VOTE FOR REPUBLICAN HARD WORKER TRAILER PARK EVERYDAY PEOPLE TILLIS WHO HELPS THE LITTLE PERSON
SCRATCH THE BLOATED $$$ MILLIONAIRE ELITE LAWYER IDLE RICH DO NOTHING DEMOCRAT FEMALE WHOSE ANCESTORS OWNED SLAVES ON THE PLANTATION
REPUBLICAN ABE LINCOLN GREW UP IN A SHACK AND FREED THE SLAVES
GOP THOM TILLIS = GOP ABE LINCOLN !!
A vote for Hagen is a vote for Harry Reid.
Prior to July 1, 2010 all boats sold in Florida were subject to a 6% sales tax since that date Florida capped the sales tax at $18,000 per transaction.
Florida’s Revenue Estimating Committee (similar to Washington’s CBO) said the measure would to “cost” taxpayers $1.5 million in lost revenue the first year alone.
Instead of the projected loss Florida collected nearly 10 times more tax dollars! This helped Florida’s $17.0 Billion dollar recreational marine industry and its 202,000 jobs. A Win – Win Tax policy that was touted as “Tax Break for the Rich Yacht Owners” turned out to be a huge windfall for Florida’s tax coffers.
a vote for hagen is a vote for the down hill slippery slope of obamacare welfare dead end-economy 18 trillion debt socialism marxism and worse of all a proxy 3rd term for obama ...
havent you seen enough ?
A vote for Tillis is just another
thumbs up to take more from the poor and needy and give to yatch owners.
Hagan is a partner to the lack of leadership in the White House today. Domestic and foreign policies are losing support every day. She must pay the price and go home, let's send Tillis to the Senate to provide new brave leadership that is honest and promising.
Considering that NC's unemployment rate is heading North at 6.8% while the nation's is going south at 5.9%, we need no further proof that the give tax breaks to the rich and the corporations approach by Tom Tillis and the Republican dominated legislature is a failure. The people of this state are suffering more because their failed ideas on how to grow the economy are not working. Where are the jobs McCory? Where are the jobs you promised Tillis? Have you forgotten you need to prove you can fix the economy in this State before you can be trusted to do the nation some good?
Tillis lied about the college he attended on his resume. Teacher pay has dropped from 39th in the nation to 48th during his leadership. As Howard Cosell said, "Down goes Tillis, down goes Tillis."
Conservatives considering voting for the "Libertarian" or staying home because Tillis is not the "right" candidate should just repeat two words over & over:
Harry Reid
Harry Reid
Harry Reid
Tillis never lied about his degree like CMPD police chief Monroe. He gave a radio interview in 2012 saying he graduated from University of Maryland and his campaign website listed the same. That was not a lie.
The website done by staffers listed his degree as University of Maryland that was not incorrect since his BA from accredited Maryland University College is affiliated with the Maryland state university system.
Liberal democrats have nothing else to hang their hats except twisted semantics since Hagen has been a useless do nothing Obama lackey minion voting 97% for the anti-muslim war, anti-military, homosexual promoting, pro immigration, socialist Obama. Hagen cast the deciding vote for the Obamacare atrocity.
Trying to erase all Bush policy Obama minion Hagen voted to pull all US troops out of Iraq against even his own ex CIA Director/Sec of Defense Leon Panetta and against Pentagon warnings that has now allowed muslim terrorists to regroup endangering America.
Sunni muslim born Obama was also strictly against taking revenge on muslim terrorists after 911 as an IL state legislator that is very usual to say the least.
He used the lame excuse that America was war weary and liberals had won him 2 elections. This has put America in peril and a clear dereliction of duty desperately trying to keep the Senate with Hagen in his back pocket.
While American citizens are beheaded Obama leisurely plays golf while Hagen goes absent from voting half the time from her military advisory panel and avoids the president in her campaign.
Neither one of these candidates are worth voting for....Next.
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