Republicans doubling down on Thom Tillis

With polls tightening in North Carolina's Senate race, the National Republican Senatorial Committee is betting another $6.5 million on Thom Tillis.

The NRSC is investing that much to help Tillis on top of the $3.9 million already committed.

The move comes as groups are making last-minute adjustments to their spending strategies three weeks before Election Day. A week before the new N.C. investment, the NRSC canceled $850,000 in ads on behalf of Michigan Senate candidate Terry Lynn Land.

The NRSC bump still leaves it behind its Democratic counterpart. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has spent over $16 million on behalf of Sen. Kay Hagan, and just announced another $1 million.

The NRSC investment comes as internal tracking polls and outside surveys show the race is tightening. Real Clear Politics shows Hagan with an average lead of 1.5 points, smaller than just a few days ago.

After getting pummeled in TV spending for months, Tillis and his allies pulled even and even a little ahead in mid-September, according to the Center for Public Integrity.

Lately they've been hitting Hagan with a series of ads that highlight the time she missed a Senate security hearing to attend a Park Avenue fundraiser.

"Even though Sen. Hagan has persistently led in the polls, it’s never been anywhere close to a lead too big to come back from," said Tom Jensen, director of Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling.

"For instance in 2008 we found her lead go from 3 points to 7 points just in the final week of the campaign. If Tillis could make a similar gain over the next 3 weeks that would be enough to erase the 3-4 point lead Hagan has in the polls right now. We’re finding that the overall national climate right now is trending in the GOP’s direction."




 

N.C. shutdown costs: Not as much as Democrats claimed

It was a screeching headline on the press release Tuesday from The Democratic Senate Campaign Committee Tuesday: "Thom Tillis, Mark Harris, Greg Brannon & Heather Grant’s Reckless & Irresponsible Government Shutdown Cost North Carolina’s Economy Up To $340 Million."

Like its Republican counterpart, the DSCC takes every opportunity to put its opponents in a bad light. And it's true that Tillis, Harris, Brannon and Grant -- the announced GOP Senate candidates -- have said they supported efforts that led to a shutdown. And most if not all opposed this month's compromise that ended it.

But $340 million? According to John Mousseau of Moody's Analytics, the real figure is $95 million.

Why the discrepancy?

According to DSCC spokesman Matt Canter, the larger figure was based on national information provided by Moody's, based on  figures from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and used by Pew researchers and published by outlets such as USA Today.

But when I called Moody's, Mousseau said the shutdown cost North Carolina $95 million. Still a lot of money, certainly, but not $340 million. Apparently that state information wasn't available to the DSCC at the time it sent its release, which was reported on at least one N.C. media site.

The DSCC used the best information it had at the time.

"What both numbers show is that the GOP shutdown caused unnecessary damage to North Carolina's economy and should never have happened," Canter said.