North Carolina the new Ohio?

Could North Carolina in 2008 play the role of Ohio in 2004?

That's what NBC political analyst Chuck Todd says he's hearing from folks in Barack Obama's campaign.

“(They) tell me they think in four weeks we will be talking about North Carolina more than we will be Ohio,” Todd told Dave Wagner of Flashpoint, a public affairs show on NewsChannel 36.

“They do believe the voter registration advantage that they have had in this state which started with the very competitive primary during the spring is allowed them to change the face of the electorate.”

You can catch Flashpoint Sunday at 10:30 a.m. In addition to Todd, the show features Davidson political scientist Susan Roberts, and me.

In his segment, Todd also talks about North Carolina's U.S. Senate campaign. Political analyst Charlie Cook also weighs in on the race in a column today.

Republican Senate hopes are looking more dismal around the county, he says, adding that GOP prospects "in Minnesota, Oregon, and North Carolina have dimmed a bit in the past month or two." To read the entire column, click here.

Two new polls show tight race in N.C.

Two new polls show a tight presidential race in North Carolina.

A CNN/Time poll released this afternoon shows Republican John McCain leading Democrat Barack Obama 48 percent to 47 percent among registered N.C. voters. That's well with within the 3.5-point margin of error.

A survey of registered voters by the Raleigh-based Civitas Institute found McCain ahead 43 percent to 42 percent. Libertarian Bob Barr got 2 percent. When poll-takers asked undecided voters who they're leaning to, McCain's lead moved to 47 percent to 44 percent, with 8 percent undecided.

The margin of error in the Civitas poll is 4.2 percentage points.