Luntz sounds off on Edwards and more

Frank Luntz, the Fox News pundit and Republican pollster who helped invent the Contract with America and the term "death tax," sat down with us Tuesday night before speaking to a Novello audience at Imaginon. He talked about the presidential race and problems Republicans face. Here's an edited version.

So who's the Democratic nominee?
"Hillary Clinton. She is the most disciplined candidate I have ever seen. She has the right answer for the right question every time. You could cook a minute egg or listen to the Minute Waltz based on her response to a typical debate question. She stops at 59 seconds every single time. She is so well trained. It’s almost inhuman. She’s a machine."

And the Republican?
"Rudy Giuliani. I’m less sure about that one and I do believe the Republican race is up for grabs. I believe Mitt Romney wins Iowa New Hampshire and Michigan... South Carolina is make or break for Fred Thompson. You cannot discount Romney. You cannot discount Thompson. Rudy is raising a lot more money than Romney is. Romney’s money is coming from Mitt Romney. Rudy has a better name ID and most importantly, voters think Rudy Giuliani is the best candidate to defeat Hillary Clinton."

Who would be the toughest Democrat for Republicans to beat?
"Joe Biden or Bill Richardson. Biden because he is the smartest Democratic candidate running, and Bill Richardson because he’s got by far the best resume of any Democrat running. But neither of them have gotten traction."

Which Democrat fades first?
"John Edwards. Sorry Mr. Edwards, but you can’t claim you care about poverty when you get a $400 haircut. He’s got the smartest team around him. Joe (Trippi), Paul (Blank) and Chris (Kofinis) are the single most talented operatives on the Democratic side. They just picked the wrong horse."

What about Elizabeth Edwards?
"Elizabeth Edwards is the best First Lady candidate by far. When I would do my focus groups in Iowa, they would tell me how she would be at these cookouts and making the food and talking politics and engaging in personal discussions all at the same time. She would hand you a burger and talk about the war in Iraq and still get the mustard and ketchup on perfectly. She’s better than he is. She should be the candidate."

And Obama?
"I'm a big Obama fan. I think Obama’s non-partisan, non hostile, non-negative message is exactly what America needs right now. John Edwards goes after corporate America. Hillary Clinton loves to attack the so called vast right-wing conspiracy. Obama would have none of that, rejects that style of politics. He would rather bring people together than tear people apart. And with this country so divided along partisan lines, I hope he does well."

How badly will the war hurt Republicans next year?
"It's not the war that's hurting Republicans so much as Katrina. Democrats have tried to take advantage of the war (but) the American people have seen what the Democrats have proposed and realize they're playing politics.

"The failure for the GOP goes back to Katrina. Republicans were always the party of competence. You may have thought they lacked compassion. You may have thought they lacked kindness and caring. But you always knew that they could do the job well. You did not choose Republicans to be abysmal failures in New Orleans.

"There's more -- wasteful Washington spending. The 'Bridge to Nowhere' was singly the most destructive vote for Republican congressional candidates in 2006. But that's not all. You also have the disaster that is immigration: Latinos who think Republicans are bigoted against them and conservatives who think Republicans won’t protect the borders. You're losing on both sides. Add the war to that and you’ll understand why I'm very pessimistic about Republican hopes."

How will Stephen Colbert do in the S.C. primaries?
"Archie Bunker got some votes when he ran in 1972. Pat Paulsen ran in 1968. Will Rogers was a political player in the 1930's. Colbert is one of the smartest political humorists, if not the smartest, and he will attract some voters. Usually the people who vote for people like him are younger, and younger people tend not to vote in primaries."

Can Hillary win?
"Absolutely. She can win because of her success. She is most likely to win because of Republican failures.

"Right now the Democrats have a 13 point edge over Republicans in generic ballots. And she’s beating Giuliani by only two points. What happened to those other 11 points? They want to vote for a Democrat but they don’t want to vote for her."

Primaries pushing forward again?

Guess we know how the presidential candidates will be spending the holidays this year.

The State newspaper of Columbia reports this morning that South Carolina Democrats want to move their primary from Jan. 29 to the 19th. That would put them on the same day as S.C. Republicans, and 10 days ahead of the Florida primaries.

Joe Werner, executive director of the state party, said Thursday the party expects to ask for the change. "We've talked to some folks at the DNC but we have no assurances," Warner said.

Any S.C. move may not be the last change in the ever-changing primary line-up.

The State, quoting other news reports, said the calendar could look like this:

-- Iowa's caucuses could be Jan. 5 instead of the 12th.
-- New Hampshire’s primary could be Jan. 8. Now, it's not scheduled until the dust settles in other states' schedules.
-- Nevada’s caucuses could be Jan. 12. They're now set for the 19th.

Edwards and the Fox web

A few months ago, John Edwards helped spearhead a Democratic boycott of two presidential debates set to be broadcast by Fox News. He also criticized News Corp. owner Rupert Murdoch's effort to buy the Wall Street Journal. Later he criticized rival Hillary Clinton for accepting $20,000 in contributions from News Corp. executives.

But like other huge companies with multiple subsidiaries, the Murdoch empire isn't easily denied.

Last month, Edwards caught flak after news leaked that he'd signed a $900,000 contract with Murdoch's publishing company, HarperCollins, for his book, "Home: The Blueprints of Our Lives." The news was leaked to the Murdoch-owned New York Post, which reported it under the headline: "EDWARDS IN A BIZ HATE & $WITCH."

On Wednesday, MTV and MySpace announced that its first "Presidential Candidate Dialogue" will feature Edwards. On Sept. 27, from the campus of Dartmouth University in New Hampshire, he'll answer questions submitted through MySpaceIM and MTV.com. During the hour-long program, people can electronically register their opinion of Edwards' answers in real time.

The Murdoch connection? MySpace is part of Fox Interactive Media.

Says Edwards' spokeswoman Colleen Murray: “Like most Americans, Edwards opposes media consolidation and the biased and unfair manner of Fox News, not social networking sites like MySpace.”

SC GOP: Thinning the field?

Four months from now, the bloated Republican presidential field could look a lot slimmer. That's because in part of a decision S.C. Republicans expect to make in the not-too-distant future.

Back in May, 10 GOP hopefuls attended the party's debate in Columbia. There were some good one-liners, but as in other early debates, the big field allowed little time to challenge candidates or focus on the big issues. That will change when South Carolina holds its next debate Jan. 10 in Myrtle Beach.

That debate is scheduled nine days before the state's "First in the South" primary on Jan. 19. Party officials plan to winnow the field by setting what chairman Katon Dawson calls "certain thresholds."

Those criteria most likely would entail a candidate attaining a specified level of support in state and national polls. And be assured, it would be higher than the 1% polling the party required of candidates in May. The only one excluded from that debate was Republican John Cox, Chicago businessman who sued Fox News for a place on stage. He lost.

A nationally televised debate with three or four candidates would give those candidates a welcome boost four days before the Iowa caucuses and five days before the S.C. and (as of Tuesday) Michigan primaries. By the same token, any candidate still in the "second tier" but hoping for a last-minute breakthrough would be disappointed.

The difference between 2nd and 3rd?

Last week, Republican presidential candidate Sam Brownback stopped in Rock Hill and put a positive spin on his 3rd-place showing in this month's Iowa straw poll.

"The winner of the (Iowa) caucuses in the last 20 years has come from out of the top three finishers in the straw poll," he told two-dozen Republicans at a Rock Hill restaurant. Then he headed off to Columbia.

On Monday, rival Mike Huckabee found a different reception in York County.

The former Arkansas governor, who finished second in the straw vote, spoke to an overflow crowd of more than 100 people in York, 60 at a Fort Mill sports bar and later hosted a fundraiser for another 150 at Knights Stadium, where he was to throw out the first pitch.

Huckabee and his supporters credit his Iowa showing with helping boost the turnout in York County. But he clearly had support there before Iowa. Earlier this year he packed a Fort Mill restaurant and finished second in a straw poll at the county convention.

He's had passionate supporters in York County. Now they're confident too.

"If we get our ground game going full steam and get people on board," we'll win South Carolina," said York County supporter Joe St. John.

S.C. Republicans plan to hold the "First in the South" presidential contest next year. It's currently scheduled for Jan. 19.

He's not in Kansas anymore

U.S. Sen. Sam Brownback isn't under any illusions. Well, maybe some.

The Kansas Republican brought his campaign to a Rock Hill restaurant Tuesday. It was the same place former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney drew a standing-room crowd, and not far from where voters packed another restaurant to hear former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.

Brownback drew about two dozen. Some candidates, he said, have no problem getting attention.

"I have to stand naked on top of the Capitol to get on page 15," he said to laughs.

But Brownback also insisted that he's in good shape to win his party's nomination. To him, a third-place finish in last weekend's Iowa straw poll, which some major candidates skipped, was a strong showing.

So he's spending the next couple days stumping in South Carolina, where polls show him stuck at about 1 percent support among Republicans. That's behind almost every other candidate including Huckabee, who finished second in the Iowa straw poll behind Romney.

Brownback's pitch is to social conservatives. But it's hard to out-conservative a conservative Baptist preacher like Huckabee. And it's hard to outspend a multi-millionaire like Romney.

So stuck deep in the "second-tier," Brownback soldiers on.

In Rock Hill he spoke, answered questions and posed for pictures. He's personable with a sense of humor. Asked what he thought of the "Brownback Girl" video making the rounds on the Internet (click here), he threw back his head and laughed. When York County GOP chairman Glenn McCall introduced him by mentioning a couple of his Senate initiatives, Brownback turned to him and said, 'Thanks for noticing those things."

"I'm the tortoise in this race," he said later. "I've got to keep clawing every day."